Fire Luxem AssassinTier 1
at CMB DTR Regionals
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 31.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.1% | +6.1 |
| Fire Suited | 14.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.5% | -5.2 |
| Fire Exia | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -10.0 |
| Water Allies | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Water Zander | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 16 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 16 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Striking Illuminance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |